Gulf Asset Reactions: Diplomacy Waxes and Wanes while Price Movements Retain Their Shape
In brief: On May 22, 2026, we released an article tracking Gulf-linked asset prices in response to six major events in the US-Iran conflict. Since then, the universe gave us two more — 1) the Islamabad MOU on June 17-18, and 2) serious re-escalation during the late Ayatollah's days-long funeral procession on July 6. The MOU traded exactly the way our May 22 Markets Note said it would — pop, then fade — and the receipts are below: a basket that chased every headline in this conflict since March is down 5.3%. The same basket, governed by our own rule — expect a quick reversal on de-escalation and follow through on escalation — is up 9.4%.